tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28861270955032394362024-02-06T19:09:21.824-08:00N.K. SinghN.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-63011264695176465652015-05-08T04:50:00.000-07:002015-05-08T04:50:27.990-07:00GST- Best cannot be the enemy of Good<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
Government Amendment Bill for the Goods and Service Tax was introduced in Lok
Sabha on 19 December, 2014. Earlier it had been considered by the Parliamentary
Standing Committee which submitted its report in August 2013. This is one of
the key reform initiatives which commenced during the earlier NDA Government
was pursued during UPA I and UPA II. It continues to be a centre piece of our
tax reforms. The Finance Minister after an introductory statement on 24 April,
2015 requested that the bill be taken up for discussion and enactment. Congress
members and some regional parties objected that the Amendment introduced subsequently
after taking account of earlier recommendations of the Standing Committee
needed further discussion. They wanted it to be resend to the Standing
Committee. This would have delayed this bill for much longer. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In
essence India still remains a fragmented market. The varied rates of taxes
imposed by Centre and States create cascading effect, burden the consumers,
deprive government of tax revenue, add to the onerous of compliance and reduce
the competitiveness of manufacturing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
Essence of the Amendment Bill lies in subsuming various Central and State
indirect taxes including central excise duty, service tax, countervailing duty,
state value added tax, octroi, entry tax, luxury tax among others. The Bill
aims at creating a single unified national market for goods and services sans
of tax distortions. A GST Council will also be constituted. The membership of
the council comprises of the Union Finance Minister, the Union Minister of
State incharge of Revenue or Finance and the Minister incharge of Finance and
Taxation or any other nominations by State Governments. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
functions of the council include making recommendations on taxes, surcharges
and cesses to be levied, goods and services to be included or exempted and so
on. The council will model laws and principles governing GST and decide upon
the turnover below which GST can be exempted. It will also decide floor rates
and bands of GST. It will suggest special rates to raise additional revenues
during natural calamity. The Council would also design special provisions with
respect to 10 states including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and North
Eastern States.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Implementation
of GST would have some clear advantages for the economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First,
a single comprehensive tax benefits all stakeholders. Consumers will benefit by paying one tax in
place of multiple overlapping taxes like VAT, entertainment tax etc., leading
to market distortions. Revenue benefits from the broadened tax base. The
suppliers benefit from the minimal burden of tax levied only on the value added
by them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Second,
it creates a unified common market. The cascading effect of complex indirect
taxes is mitigated. The transparency and simplification improves compliance.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Third,
a comprehensive tax improves the competitiveness of manufacturing sector. In
the long run, by promoting growth it improves the per capita income. The
purchasing power of the growing middle income population of India is enhanced. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Fourth,
a transparent and rational tax regime improves the Ease of Doing Business. It
boosts investor confidence, encourages capital inflows and gives a fillip to
the Make in India programme. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Multiple
challenges, however, remain unresolved.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">One,
states are concerned that a substantial proportion of their indirect tax
revenues are now subsumed in one tax. They are also worried that now the tax
revenue will accrue to the destination states and not the manufacturing states.
Central government’s decision to reimburse the loss in revenue will allay this
fear. In the long run, higher growth would make central support unnecessary.
The transitional fiscal burden on the central government will also be allayed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Two,
the rate of GST also remains undecided. Tax rates cannot be too low as it will
impact Government’s revenue. On the other hand, high tax rates will affect
compliance. Our tax rates, in the long run, need to be aligned with the rates
in other developing economies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Three,
issues such as taxing inter-state transactions at 1 percent has caused concern.
It has been decided that such a tax with an upper limit of 1 percent be
collected by the Centre and can be assigned to the States for an initial couple
of years. The GST Council reserves rights to make recommendations in this
context. However, a higher rate of such tax can create production distortions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Four,
the exclusion of tobacco, alcohol and petroleum and the real estate sector robs
major areas from a unified tax structure. Overtime and given experience, the
GST Council can phase these in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Analysts
believe that GST is central to our growth strategy. While estimates vary, many
believe that it can add upto 1.5 percent to India’s GDP. It benefits all
stakeholders. The glitches have to be resolved overtime. The Best should not
become the enemy of the Good. An early GST is now an economic necessity.</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-6293335453509816702015-04-06T02:53:00.000-07:002015-04-06T02:53:53.711-07:00Singapore and the legacy of Lee Kuan Yew<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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I was in Singapore on the day of Lee Kuan Yew’s cremation. As the Founding Father of Singapore he was the longest serving Prime Minister from 1959 to 1990 in recent history. Till two years ago even at the age of 89 he was active in the policy domain. Narendra Modi has done India enormous service by participating in his funeral. We even had a national mourning on Sunday. These gestures have made an indelible imprint in the minds and hearts of Singaporeans. George Yeo the former Foreign Minister, with whom I spent some time, told me how deeply touched they were and how indebted they will remain for this symbolic act. Modi’s instinctive decision suggests the high leadership qualities. Leaders emerge not merely from experience but from leadership instincts. Choosing the right moments and the right occasion is what decisive leadership is about. Everyone knows that the relationship between Mrs. Indira Gandhi and Lee Kuan Yew was not particularly warm. India remained contemptuous that a leader of a small city state, successful no doubt, should not preach economic liberalization to a complex country like ours. We viewed his advice with scepticism. Lee Kuan Yew himself regarded India to be a disappointment for not grasping the opportunity which could transform India. He somewhat changed his views following our liberalisation in the 1990s.</div>
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In the last 20 years, the India – Singapore partnership has deepened significantly. India for them represents a large demography, unsatiated demand and a market for managerial skills and technology within a functioning democratic framework. </div>
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It is no secret that after Singapore’s partition from Malaysia in 1965, Singapore has rapidly transited from a third world country to a developed economy. Its per capita income rose from US $ 540 in 1965 to US $ 54,040 in 2014. It has repeatedly topped the list of the Ease of Doing Business and is an example of successful Public Private Partnership. This is even though many regard Singapore as a family run concern. Notwithstanding timely elections and a functioning Parliament it has suppressed individual liberties, curbed the media to enforce discipline and secure productivity gains. The younger segment has persistently resented these curbs. In a country with a total geographical area that does not exceed 700 square kilometers and a population of 5 million which is ageing, persistent immigration has caused social unease.</div>
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Broadly speaking, the Singapore success story has four lessons for India.</div>
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First, that it is possible to improve productivity and growth in a State run enterprise, if given autonomy, domain knowledge and best technology solutions. Singapore Airlines, the Changi Airport and important infrastructure projects are owned by Temasek- a public sector company. Making public sector run efficiently and principles underlining their efficiency and productivity are worth replicating.</div>
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Second, Singapore stands out as the shining example of urban planning and water management systems. Not a drop of water is wasted. All water which is consumed is recycled from sewage and effective treating of rain water. Water conservation systems and urban planning are relevant for us as we grapple with problems of persistent water shortages and unplanned urbanisation. Singapore is the best Smart City one can think off. Chandra Babu Naidu has been quick to recognise this and ask Singapore to help in building its new capital at Amravati. We could do so for the cities and give more tangible content to SMART Cities.</div>
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Third, China is often quoted as an outstanding example of what may be called Controlled Capitalism. Fostering the private sector culture of innovation, technological upgradation, vastly superior managerial skills and combining them with public resources have created models of Public Private Partnership from which we need to learn. India is seeking to re-jig its Public Private Partnership model in terms of risk assignment, eliminating the odour of crony capitalism in exploiting natural resources and securing appropriate benefits to all stakeholders.</div>
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Fourth, the transparent administrative system in Singapore in framing its labour laws has lessons for India where reforms in Labour Laws have now rightly focused the attention of policy makers. Also, while collective bargaining power of Trade Unions in India detracts investments, the Trade Unions in Singapore instead use the collective bargaining to improve education and other social services for its members. </div>
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Finally, emphasis of Singapore and its overarching theme, investment in Human Resource Development, inculcation of skills, and payment of high wages to public servants to obviate temptations of corruption have significant lessons for us. </div>
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True, Singapore is a city-state. Even more true, it neither has the demography nor the complex conflicts of language, caste and religion as in a polity like ours. Yes, small is not always beautiful but small city-states like Singapore have multiple lessons for us. The legacy of Lee Kuan Yew will be India’s constant reminder of its missed opportunities, more importantly of misplaced arrogance and decisive inability of our political leaders to readapt our economic and social strategies till compelled to do so by our economic crisis has been our decisive disadvantage. It is never too late to learn and we have successfully course corrected. In forging deeper partnership with Singapore we are drawing the right lessons from the legacy of Singapore’s Founding Father. </div>
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-72271117809175732062015-03-13T01:21:00.000-07:002015-03-13T01:21:09.188-07:00End of Neo-Colonialism<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The babel around the Budget and the XIV Finance Commission and subsequent comments and analyses have now ebbed. There are some States and stakeholders who are critical based on inadequacies of allocation in the social sector. But there is a consensus that the Budget represents a credible balancing act and gives a decisive momentum to the economic upturn which has already commenced. Thomas Sowell has said “The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.” So which lesson did the Budget pursue?</div>
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In retrospect, there were some overarching policy options to leverage that the Finance Minister had.</div>
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<b>One, the classic choice: growth versus inflation</b>. How much of fiscal flexibility was acceptable to enhance public outlays in infrastructure – railways and highways? The budget has adhered to the path of fiscal rectitude by meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.1% this year. It has postponed the terminal fiscal deficit target of 3% by an additional year with somewhat higher intermediate targets. The rating agencies prefer a closer adherence to the fiscal roadmap. Of course the new time path must be adhered. I have for long argued that parliamentary approvals must be ex-ante than ex-post. The recommendation for a Fiscal Council contained in the Finance Commission’s recommendations is sensible. This along with the new Monetary Policy Framework Agreement between the Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India would act in congruent ways. It will ensure harmony between monetary and fiscal policy and thus Mint Street and North Block.</div>
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<b>Two, subsidy rationalisation.</b> There are significant gains in rationalising petroleum and fertilizer subsidies by de-regulating petrol and diesel and moving over to the Aadhar based LPG subsidy. Further action is needed on fertilizers, particularly Urea. There must be pari-passu progress as JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile) gathers momentum.</div>
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<b>Three, congenial external environment to be harnessed.</b> Oil prices have dramatically declined from $82 to $59 with soft commodity prices. The current account deficit is acceptable even though in the long run sluggish export behavior needs innovative action beyond conducive exchange rates. We could have used this opportunity to create greater fiscal space for the future. Public debt could have been retired or a Consolidated Sinking Fund for amortisation of debt created. The Finance Commission suggests this can “tide over, roll over risks and the weak cash management practices.”. A middle path has been preferred. Substantial benefit has been passed to the consumers enhancing their purchasing power, allowing oil companies to recoup some losses and raise revenues to meet fiscal targets. Given the opportunity, this must be pursued.</div>
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<b>Four, the XIV Finance Commission’s recommendations.</b> There is overwhelming precedence that on devolutions they have been treated as awards than recommendatory. Consequently, total devolution to the States is now 62% of which 42% is from common divisible pool of taxes. The rise in tax devolution to States and the Non Plan grants to local bodies together represent a sharp cut of ’206292 crore from the Centre’s resource block. In the shrunken resources for the Central government the funding pattern of schemes has under gone a structural shift. The Budget at a Glance again highlights the middle path. It classifies public outlays in three categories – schemes to be supported by the Union, schemes to be continued with change in sharing pattern and those fully de-linked from Central support. The major flagship programmes of the government remain in the Union list like the Sarva Shikaha Abhiyan, MGNREGA, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna. There are others which would be financed with a changed sharing pattern. Schemes de-linked from Central support, leaving it for the States to decide are rather small. The most contentious being the Backward Region Grant Fund to Bihar, KBK and Bundelkhand.</div>
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There has been misplaced criticism that social sector outlays have been drastically pruned. In making such comparisons a methodological error has crept in. Analysts have compared the Budget Estimates of 2014-15 with the Budget Estimates for the current year. Those familiar with public finance know that normally the comparison is between the RE (Revised Estimates) with BE (Budget Estimates). Such comparison would suggest that allocations have been kept more or less intact. In the case of Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) the reduction is sharp, but the pattern of funding is yet to be decided.</div>
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Thus the Budget and the Finance Commission are two sides of the same coin. It emanates from the design and conception of a new financial architecture of Centre-State relations. It is a giant step in promoting federalism where much larger untied resources become available to the States for selecting, designing and implementing programmes best suited to their needs. The Government had little option given the shrunken envelope after accepting the Finance Commission’s recommendations. After all you cannot have the cake and also eat it. States cannot have both the cake of large untied resources and eat the Centrally Sponsored Schemes as originally conceived. One can argue of whether this was the best approach or could the recalibration have been somewhat different? </div>
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Will this new model of Fiscal Federalism work? There are inherent risks but also existing opportunities for Team India. The risks are well known if the State Governments act irresponsibly or promote fiscal profligacy. But in the end, the Government at the Centre and the States are judged by the improvement and development of life quality by the Electorate whose periodic mandate they seek.</div>
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The new fiscal architecture eliminates the form of neo-colonialism like what Rudyard Kipling described as the White Man’s Burden viz. the Centre knows what was good for the States. A new social compact between the Union and the states has been ushered.</div>
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Thus, the adoption of the XIV Finance Commission’s recommendations and the Budget reflect that the Government has accepted both, the first lesson of economics and the first lesson of politics. A credible balancing act is what the budget is all about.</div>
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-39979699837479096532015-02-17T00:56:00.000-08:002015-02-17T00:56:38.760-08:00बड़े आर्थिक बदलाव का मौका<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-26427234202268939342015-02-16T22:21:00.000-08:002015-02-16T22:21:12.203-08:00Money-wise: A budget is as good as our implementation capabilities<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">It is said that no success is final,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>nor failure fatal — it is the courage to continue that counts.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Delhi electoral outcome has rekindled a fresh debate on the preferred model of development. Apart from other factors some analysts argue that the economic policies of the government have a pro-rich bias and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>alienated a large voter base among migrants, slum-dwellers and, generally, the very poor. The forthcoming budget, they argue, must course correct. This reasoning is truly farfetched. The focus of the election campaign by AAP related to issues of corruption, safety of women, availability of drinking water and inadequacy of basic infrastructure. Critics overlook that the amendment to the Land Acquisition Act pertains to the ponderousness of the process and does not dilute the generous compensation. Similarly, with respect to the MGNREGA based on CAG report the emphasis rightly has been placed on capital-creating assets. The approach also overlooks the more basic fact that the excessively entitlement-driven policies of UPA 1 and UPA 2 weakened macro fundamentals, reduced investable surpluses and smothered investor confidence. These entitlement-driven rights embedded in several legislations were a major draft on shrinking resources. Coupled with weak delivery systems with inherent leakages they eluded improved life quality to intended beneficiaries. Any economic strategy must be designed to create more jobs, improve outcomes of social spending, quality of infrastructure and improve competitive viability to attract private investments.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">All principles of distributive justice are predicated on enlarging the size of the cake. The reverse is a vicious quagmire of a low-level equilibrium trap.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">For too long budget expectations remain misaligned with contemporary realities. Broadly speaking, in a comparatively closed economy prior to 1991, the budget was predominantly an accounting statement of projected revenues and intended expenditures. Post 1991, the budget increasingly becomes an occasion to go beyond accounting and articulate the broader economic and social agenda of the government. This approach in the earlier reform period of 1991 to 1994 was fostered by multilateral institutions as a pre-condition for access to their resources.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Speculation, uncertainty and excessive secrecy contribute to the mystique of the budget process. It is not adequately recognised that all over the world economic policy-making is a continuous process. The budget is hardly a panacea for either all economic malaise or response to multiple economic challenges. In an increasingly inter-dependent world we need to adopt the best international practice in the budgetary process. The OECD Best Practices for Budget Transparency report has suggested an ex-ante engagement than ex-post outcomes. It argues that ‘a pre-budget report serves to encourage debate on the budget aggregates and how they interact with the economy. As such, it also serves to create appropriate expectations for the budget itself.’ British economist John Maynard Keynes suggests “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">So what should we anticipate for the forthcoming budget?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">First, continue the focus on growth, investments and employment creation. Distractions and plea for populist programmes must be subsumed as part of the broader priority agenda of the government, which focuses on externalities, public goods, enhancing our competitive viability and total factor productivity of the economy.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Second, both savings and the investment rates and investment gearing ratio need to substantially increase for transiting to a higher growth trajectory.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Third, reiterating the commitment to fiscal rectitude and the path of fiscal consolidation. Mechanical fixation of fiscal deficit should be replaced by cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit with latitude to reach end targets with flexibility during the intervening period. The concept of cyclically adjusted fiscal deficits now has wide acceptance. As Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business, reminds us, “Gradual fiscal consolidation may also be stimulative in the short run.”<br /><br />Fourth, improved expenditure management, reduction in the number of centrally-sponsored schemes and given reported generous award of the finance commission coupled with subsidy rationalisation, particularly direct benefit transfer, benefit macro management.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Fifth, a reiteration of abstinence for future retrospective changes and acceptance of judicial or quasi judicial or arbitration outcomes improves investor confidence.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Sixth, lowering tax rates to improve opportunity cost of investment and enlarging the base with a commitment to align our taxation rates with Asean rates will be an important investor fillip. Adopting best international practice in respect of treaty shopping, seeking tax arbitrage, base erosion and profit sharing and application of GAAR can be part of the same process.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Seventh, clearly-identified programmes that are popular but not populist and contribute to inclusive growth, like Jan Dhan, Swachh Bharat, Clean Ganga, the Digital India and Make in India campaigns should receive tax incentives to invigorate green shoots of investments and back-end infrastructure. Improving the ease of business, particularly enforcements of contracts and permissions in the construction sector as high priority, can make a difference.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Eighth, enhancing agricultural productivity, particularly supply side response, in consonance with changing consumer preference along with orderly non-agricultural job creation is important.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Improved social infrastructure, particularly health and education need an innovative approach. In education, the key issue of guaranteed access must be replaced by improved outcome, through teacher training, and undoing the debilitating feature of the RTE, which has smothered private initiative, is critical. This would be congruous to the new skill inculcation initiatives both in respect of rejuvenating existing institutions and creating new ones.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">In the end, any budget is as good as our implementation capabilities. John Keats was right when he said “Nothing ever becomes real till it is experienced”.</span></span></div>
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-4945043698134574842015-02-01T23:33:00.003-08:002015-02-01T23:33:54.699-08:00India: The Economy of Future<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The last ten days have been packed with events. Just prior to
the visit of Obama the World Economic Forum in Davos concluded its 45<sup>th</sup>
annual conference of the broad theme entitled ‘The New Global Context’. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">This was my 17<sup>th</sup> year in the Alpine Ski Resort in
Switzerland. Davos is much more than mere animated discussions ranging from the
economy to politics to medicines to arts and sciences. It manages to get each
successive year to engage key policy makers and game changers. The slogan is
‘Come to Davos and meet the world of Game Changers’. At the heart of it, Davos
is less about meeting but more about making friends, to nexus, to connect and
to leverage contacts. You need a ‘Davos Frame of Mind’ to make the best of
Davos. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Are there multiplier benefits to friendship and contacts even
in an interdependent world today? Yes it is, because with face to face
contacts, even brief conversation is a quick learning experience about changes,
perceptions and pointers to future.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Davos conference this year had a mixed milieu. The European
delegation seemed concerned about the future of Europe and given the uncertainties
in Greece and vulnerabilities of some other countries. The future of euro zone
remains a question mark. Russia was struggling to keep its head above water
since ruble has collapsed; oil revenues were half with rising fiscal deficit, a
credit down grade with persistent foreign capital outflows. So between the
uncertainties of Euro Zone and Russia, Europe remains in doldrums, if not in turmoil.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The US recovery is robust with employment figures looking
optimistic even though there is uncertainty on how quickly interest rates would
rise and quantitative easing wound down. In Latin America there were patches of
good and bad - Brazil remains sluggish. In Asia, the Chinese economy has slowed
down, partly a result of a conscious policy to ease overheating and move economic
activity towards low fossil fuel use. The return of Abe and relentless pursuit
of Abenomics by way of quantitative easing has yet to reverse the slowdown. In
Africa, the South African economy remains sluggish and the falling commodity
prices has upset many African economies. India remains in notable exception and
indeed as the eminent economist Laura Tyson said in Davos, India is a high point
in the short run but now importantly the economy of the future.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">India in Davos has always passed through oscillations. Prior
to 1991, when Davos was much smaller, India was viewed as a closed economy
which discouraged foreign investment and was viewed merely as a potential
market for exports of plant and technology. The reforms of 1991 brought about a
major shift when the opening up of the Indian economy enthused the world as new
opportunities opened. This continued for several years. However, it was during
the NDA government under the leadership of Atal Vihari Vyajpayee, the opening
up of the telecom sector and massive highway building programmes had Davos
excited about the New India opportunity. The acceleration of the growth rate,
particularly in 2007-08 continued the India fever. However, the five years of
the UPA-II government dashed their expectations. India slipped from global
investor radar. The sluggish growth rates of sub 5 percent over the past few
years with controversial retrospective tax changes enhanced perception of
governance paralysis, lack of transparency, financial malfeasance and crony
capitalism; people felt it was a country which had gone back in time. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">All this has changed quickly in the last seven months.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The panel discussions in which Arun Jaitely participated and
some in which Piyush Goyal did, were the most sought after meetings in Davos. Arun
Jaitely’s CII breakfast meeting under the aegis of Boston Consulting Group had
a packed and enthusiastic crowding. Equally Mr. Jaitely’s one on one
conversation with a correspondent of New York Times had an enthusiastic
response with informed questions from the audience. His televised debate on the
BRICS agenda was moderated by Silio Boccanera in which participants included
Carlos Ghosn(Chairman, CEO Renault Nissan),<span>
</span>Justin Lin(Professor at Peking University, China) and Nhlanhla Musa Nene
(Finance Minister of South Africa. Similarly, the well attended NDTV debate on
the Future of India had Chanda Kochar, Nouriel Roubini, Vikram Chadra with Arun
Jaitely.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">My broad conclusions on India at Davos would include the
following four points.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-language-override: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-synthesis: weight style; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"></span></span></span><span style="line-height: 115%;">India
is back on the global radar of investors. They are back in their reckoning and
in the plans and programs of their corporates and associates</span><span style="line-height: 115%;">. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
expectations of a 5.7 percent growth this year, over 6 percent in the following
year, climbing on to 7 percent and higher subsequently, with moderate inflation,
acceptable current account deficit, significant opening up of foreign investments
in railways and defense, the prospects of reviving manufacturing, the Make in India
Campaign, the Swachh Bharat, Digital India and Clean Ganga offer enormous opportunities
for technology, capital and entrepreneurial skills.</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Investors
would watch carefully the implementation of many promised steps. They
appreciated that instead of endless wait, the key ordinances on coal mining,
land acquisition and insurance was a commitment to adopt the unconventional
route than sacrifice growth. They would hope these are converted into
legislations sooner than later. They will also watch other measures on labour
laws, implementation of projects with stranded assets, clearing up of balance
sheets of banks and injection of financial resources through increasingly
market based instruments.</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
speed of government action has taken the world and indeed investors at Davos by
surprise.</span></span></li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Davos 2015 marks the rekindling of global hope and
expectation about the India story. The world hopes this would not be yet another
false dawn. We hope so too.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
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Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-12030282862067037832015-01-20T03:26:00.000-08:002015-01-20T03:41:42.700-08:00 Grasping ‘Pravasiye’ Opportunities<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The 13th meeting of <b>Pravasi Bhartiya Divas</b> was concluded last week in Ahmedabad. This congregation of Indians every year presents the diversity of Indians living and working abroad.<br /><br />There are basically two categories of the Indian Diaspora - <b>Non Resident Indian ((NRI)</b> i.e. “a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_nationality_law" target="_blank">citizen of India</a> who holds an Indian<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passport" target="_blank"> passport</a> and has temporarily <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emigration" target="_blank">emigrated</a> to another country for six months or more for employment, residence, education or any other purposes”) and <b>Person of Indian Origin ((POI) </b> i.e. “ a person who was born in India or whose ancestors were born in India or other states who have Indian ancestry but is not a citizen of India and is the citizen of another country.”)<br /><br />Indian has the second largest Diaspora in the world, spread across 200 countries. The Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) accounts for the largest share of Indian Diaspora accounting for over 6 million Indians followed by Europe. United Kingdom, alone is a home to close to 2 millions of Indian Diaspora Population. The United States has 1.5 millions of Indian Diaspora population.<br /><br />The geographical spread of Indian Diaspora across the globe and the reasons contributing to migration of people from India have evolved overtime. Historically, Indians left the country as indentured labourers to the destination countries of Caribbean, Fiji and Mauritius. In contrast, the current migratory flows from India comprise of students and qualified professionals and intellectual personnel to developed countries, particularly, UK, USA, New Zealand, Canada and Australia. The movement of skilled personnel has accelerated particularly from 1990s following the rapid development of Information-Technology. There is an outflow of semi-skilled and unskilled workers too, which remains biased towards the Gulf.<br /><br />The NRI community traditionally had a nostalgia and attachment to their homeland but felt alienated and ignored by the government. They often felt that the Indian embassies paid scant attention. Sieglinde Lekme has said “Sometimes diaspora art expresses a longing for home, and frequently it tries to construct a collective identity out of its mostly heterogeneous reality.”. So how can we convert these longings into tangible investment opportunities?<br /><br />Overtime the Diaspora Community has also metamorphosed itself. They have reached second and third generations. Also they have integrated themselves well with their destination countries. In United States they have acquired advantaged positions and entered the political arena of the country. The US Administration has more than 50 Indians in it including Mr. Rajiv Shah who has acquired the highest position in US Aid as the admin of the US Aid. In United Kingdom also the status of the Indian Diaspora has changed. There are 18 Indians in the House of Lords and 6 British Indians in the House of Commons. This part of Indian Diaspora has showcased significant influence in policy changes. Integration of Indians abroad with the destination countries’ top layer of entrepreneurs and politicians has helped India in increasing its political reach and strategic influence globally.<br /><br />How can this Diaspora be most effectively harnessed for India’s development?<br /><br />The Overseas Indian Community contributes to country’s GDP by the way of remittances. India is one of topper recipients of remittances. It received a total of $70 billion as remittances in 2013, two thirds of which came from the Gulf Countries and North America. The remaining one-third is significantly accounted for by the European Countries of UK and Canada. The shares of major source countries in the total remittances flowing to India have remained more or less the same for almost a decade now.<br /><br />These remittances play a crucial role in creating consumption demand domestically by directly lending purchasing power to the migrants’ families. Besides, the inflow of remittances provides a cushion against the current account deficit and thus helps in managing country’s Balance of Payment (BoP) Account. Of late, there has been a gradual increase in the inflow of remittances as savings in the bank accounts facilitated by the moderated cost of transferring remittances and deregulated interest rates on bank deposits by NRIs in the Non Residential Ordinary Accounts and Non Residential External Accounts.<br /><br />Albeit increased remittance and investment inflows, yet the Diaspora involvement in country’s development matrix remains below its potential. How can the Indian Diaspora be enabled to contribute to the development of their motherland?<br /><br />First, though the use of remittances for purposes other than consumption has somewhat increased but there is ample scope for better channelisation of this monetary contribution of the Diaspora. Increased inflow of remittances to the directed to savings accounts in the banks can be leveraged for increasing the liquidity in the economy. Alternatively, these funds can be loaned out towards funding investments in the economy. This would inturn create new employment opportunities, infuse new income followed by new consumption and investment in the economy through remittance multiplier effect.<br /><br />Second, electronic transfers are the most preferred and easy mode to transfer remittances for Indians living abroad. Thus, improved basic technological know-how at the home country to receive electronic transfers can enhance the inflow of remittances through formal channels.<br /><br />Third, the Indians living abroad can also take part in country’s development by making direct investments and also by making available their intellectual and entrepreneurial expertise for the country. Countries like China have been successful in attracting its trained and qualified Diaspora in the developed countries to return and play a role in Chinese think tanks and universities. Similar arrangements can be made in India wherein the Indian personnel abroad can come and undertake some specialized activities like major surgeries; teach for a semester or for sometime if resettlement in India is not feasible and collaborate with the research departments of Indian academic institutions. They can help in finding innovative solutions to improve the outcome through public outlays.<br /><br />Finally, while the 13th Pravasi Bhartiya Divas in Ahmedabad had a very robust presence given the attraction of the new government and Prime Minister Modi’s appeal to Non Resident Indians, this cannot be said of many other states in India. Gujarat is a shining example but other parts of the country need to emulate the story. Innovative ways to integrate the Diaspora and making them partners in development are required.<br /><br />Indians abroad are now players in influencing the political and economic discussion making in US, UK and Australia. It is a challenge on to harness and leverage their new found political and economic power to India’s advantage to garner greater investments, inward capital flows, technology cooperation and counteract the growing influence of some other competing countries.<br /><br />As India matures, so does the Indian Diaspora. We need to build virtual circles on their new strengths. The challenge is of grasping these new opportunities.</div>
N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-31332917681827974242015-01-07T00:46:00.001-08:002015-01-07T00:46:55.048-08:00India in 2015: Challenges Ahead<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">This is my first column for 2015. Let me begin by wishing my
readers a very happy 2015. Sarah Ban Breathnach has said, <b>“</b></span><a href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/s/sarahbanbr676231.html?src=t_start" title="view quote"><b><i><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none;">New Year's Day. A fresh
start. A new chapter in life waiting to be written. New questions to be asked,
embraced, and loved. Only dreams give birth to change</span></i></b><b><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none;">.</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">”</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> and yet</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> Winston
Churchil has cautioned us that, <b>“<i>It is always wise to look ahead, but
difficult to look further than you can see.</i>”</b>.</span></span>
<br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The year that went by contributed to some important
turnarounds.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">First, we have a</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">strong, stable and credible government
with a decisive leader. The era of fractured coalition politics is hopefully
behind us for some time. The parliamentary majority in the Lok Sabha is
decisive for the ruling party. In the Rajya Sabha the ruling party does not
have a majority and forging bipartisan support will remain a challenge. It will
test the skills of the ruling party in the months ahead. Even while the
spectacular victories in Maharashtra and Haryana following the general election
of 2014 was a reiteration of the pro-Modi sentiment, the recent victory in
Jharkhand and decisive improvement in Jammu & Kashmir mark a continuation
of the same trend albeit according to some in muted form. The changed
composition of the Electoral College will improve BJP’s strength in upper house
in 2016 with continuing improvements.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Second, the economic
decline looks to have bottomed out. We have hopefully seen an end of the
prolonged period of policy paralysis, sub-5 percent growth, unsustainable
Current Account Deficit, raging inflation, rising subsidy bills and little or
no credible action aimed at macro-economic stability or structural reforms.
This fiscal year will end with growth rate somewhere between 5.4-5.9 percent,
moderation of inflation, a manageable current account, a modest revival of investor
confidence. Interest rates would come down this week or by the first week of
February. The recent ingredients of structural reforms includes deregulation of
diesel prices, replacing cooking gas subsidy with direct transfers, reforming
coal sector and allowing private sector in it, <i>Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna, Swachha Bharat Abhiyan </i>and labour
reforms. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Third, looking at the
external factors, the world in general presents a mixed picture. Japanese
economy will struggle to crawl out of recession even under the renewed
leadership of Abe. The slowdown in Chinese economy will persist for a while
with declining competitiveness in labour intensive manufacturing. The American
economy has shown a sharp upward turn with expectations of increase in interest
rates which may encourage outward capital flows with pressure on our exchange
rate and current account deficit. The European economy would remain in
doldrums. The growing geo political tension between Russia and the West could
create multiple dynamics of its own. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fourth, the altered
global energy scenario with medium term prognosis of soft oil prices has huge
implications for India. The current downward trend in petroleum and oil prices
would benefit fiscal management particularly subsidy flow but make renewable
energy less cost competitive. A robust recovery of our exports, given global
uncertainties, could remain problematic. This could impact the current account
deficit. However, on the whole, the external environment in the short term
looks advantageous for us. The subdued inflation behavior should be used as an
opportunity to rationalize cross subsidies and pursue many pending reforms. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">So what are the
challenges which we face? And what could be the most beneficial outcome?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">First, combining rapid
economic growth with social cohesiveness will remain problematic. Societal
evolution in accepting the consequences of rapid growth at best presents a
mixed picture. Preserving traditional values, cultural identity, during periods
of rapid urbanization and migration poses policy choices on which there are no
easy answers. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Second, rapid economic
growth cannot be taken for granted. Expectations both form the Prime Minister and
the Budget in altering the growth trajectory remain high, almost unrealistic. Policies
and procedures when altered have a gestation period. The misalignment between
expectations and ground level changes in the short run can create
uncertainties. The opposition would hope for political backlash. It is important
to persevere and stay on the course.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Third, creating
gainful employment both in manufacturing and services will need changes in
regulatory framework beyond administrative actions. Some recent measures initiated
in earnest to fix time limits on grant of approvals, simplifying the number of
approvals needed, resolving contractual disputes, simplifying registration
procedures can make a difference on the Ease of doing business. Changes in
labour laws would need to go beyond encouraging states to adopt the best
practices of some states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Legislative action sooner
or later will be inevitable. Reports that large foreign investments from
relocation of Japanese investment away from China are still in a wait and watch
mode for India suggest need for more decisive action.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> Fourth, improving health and education outcomes
has received priority focus. Nonetheless, harmonising skill inculcation programmes
with emerging demands needs coordinated action between centre and states, the
corporate sector and more robust forms of public private partnership.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fifth, managing
parliament, particularly the Rajya Sabha could remain problematic. Government has
options by the way of ordinance, its promulgations and Joint Sessions. These are
no substitutes for persevering with forging bipartisan support to enact key
legislations. Given recent setback in State Elections the opposition may be
subdued facilitating greater cooperation during the year. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Sixth, internal
security presents a complex challenge. The recent ethnic killings in Assam,
challenge of terrorism aided and abated from across the border and the specter
of Maoist insurgency in several states requires a robust response. The conduct
of peaceful elections in Jammu and Kashmir has many positives. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Finally, harnessing
the improved external environment to India’s advantage. The investor appetite
in United States Japan and Australia has been rekindled. Translating
expectations and commitments into tangible actions may require re-doubling our
efforts. Moving foreign policy to foreign economic policy must go beyond
rhetoric. Harnessing the enthusiasm of Indian diaspora can be a decisive
advantage.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The New Year comes
with the renewed hopes and expectations. The prime minister was right when he
recently said that the “World is ready for India but is India ready for the
world?”. We must prove that we are and that there is credible action to address
the key challenges.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">It is well said by
Joyce Meyer that <b><i>“We don’t grow when things are easy; we grow when we
face challenges.”</i></b> </span></span></div>
</div>
N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-85150436532128166162015-01-02T01:59:00.003-08:002015-01-02T01:59:58.163-08:00नई आर्थिक चुनौतियों की दस्तक<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-54804701284322248852014-12-22T00:14:00.000-08:002014-12-22T00:40:51.571-08:00 The Power of Zero <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<![endif]--><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">In normal
parlance achieving zero is not a happy state. Getting zero in examination
assessment reports or levels of economic activity or assessing prospects of
growth is held as sign of underperformance and weakness. Yet there is some
cheer in the economic world for reaching the state of zero inflation. India’s
wholesale inflation fell to zero in November- from 7.52 percent a year ago -
lowest since July 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are
multiple ways in which price indices are computed in India. The Wholesale Price
Index (WPI) measures the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods.
In India, this basket is composed of three groups, namely, Primary Articles,
Fuel and Power and Manufactured Products. Historically, the wholesale price
index (WPI) has been the main measure of inflation in India. The WPI is used by
the Government to measure inflation. However, in 2013, the Reserve Bank of
India adopted the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the key measure of inflation
following the recommendation of the Urjit Patel Committee. The consumer price
index (CPI) undoubtedly works better than wholesale price index (WPI) in
capturing market dynamics and arriving at a more realistic inflation forecast. This
preferred measure of price index has also come down to 4.38 percent in November
from 11.6 percent a year ago. Part of the sharp fall in both retail and
wholesale inflation is due to the significant moderation in prices of food and
fuel witnessed in recent weeks in addition to the favourable base effect. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are several questions which this raises.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">First, the
cost and condition of accessing formal credit is influenced by inflationary
trends. Contrary to expectations, the RBI in its last policy review announced
two weeks ago decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 8.0 percent which
is considered as too high for encouraging new investment decisions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Infact, the RBI has maintained a retail
inflation target of 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. The Consumer
Price Index inflation falling below the 6% target considerably earlier than
anticipated may prompt the RBI to begin its easing cycle sooner than later. There
are however doubts on the trajectory of inflationary expectations. Inflationary
expectation surveys are conducted by the RBI periodically by eliciting opinion
of households on their future price expectations. This influences consumer
behaviour and consumption pattern. According to the latest Inflation
expectation survey of the RBI, the inflationary expectations over the next
three months and one year are at 14.6 and 16 percent compared to 12.9 and 15.3
percent in March 2014. Many however doubt if these findings are realistic in
nature in determining interest rates. There are also apprehensions on whether
the decline in prices of food or fuel is transitory in nature or sustainable.
The decline in interest rate has to be sharp and steep to make a difference by
signalling that the worst is over also in making investment decisions more
viable. </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Second, there is a broader issue of refocusing on
long-pending reforms with inflation having moderated significantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It offers an opportunity and considerable flexibility
for politically sensitive subsidy rationalisation apart from number of other
economic changes. These reforms can be fast-tracked now including the distortionary
regime of price controls and cross-subsidies on LPG, Kerosene and Fertiliser to
mention a few. Having eliminated under-recoveries in diesel that amounted to Rs
62,837 crore in 2013-14, the government needs to target the Rs 77,000 crore-odd
subsidy on cooking fuels next. It should do this by making all consumers pay
the market price for LPG and kerosene, and transferring the difference directly
into the bank accounts of actual beneficiaries. The latter must be carefully
identified, to include only low-income or vulnerable households deserving of
subsidy. The fertilizer subsidy remains a key burden on government finances
which is currently estimated at Rs 70,000 crore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is therefore need for a rationalistic
approach towards pricing of fertiliser and the most commonly used soil nutrient
Urea. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moderating Food prices offers a
window of opportunity to fully decontrol sugar and reform the public
distribution system to roll out the Direct benefit Transfer scheme. Similarly,
prices of public utilities, including electricity, transport and rail passenger
fair and freight rates can be progressively freed given the favourable
circumstances. The market share of Indian Railways in total freight traffic has
been falling consistently and this calls for rationalization of cross-subsidies
between passenger fares and freight rates to remove distortions. This is
therefore a historic opportunity to fast-track these reforms to make the
economy more competitive. </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Finally, moderating
inflation is also an opportunity to reform the tax regime to make it more
progressive and to strengthen the public finances. Moderating inflation is
positive news for the government as lesser subsidy outgoes on food and
petroleum products and lower costs of borrowing can improve the fiscal health
of the economy. Lower input costs and interest rates can boost private
investment in infrastructure projects. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With
the Wholesale Price Index at zero and the Consumer Price Index at below 5%
level, the Indian economy should start picking up steam. But this would largely
depend on the pace of fiscal and expenditure reforms which took a back seat in
the previous years. </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The power of
zero is a far reaching power. It is a signal of change which affords an opportunity
for undertaking long-postponed reforms. Not only has Modi won a historic but
the external circumstances have also turned favourable unthinkable only few months
ago. Economists may view the free fall in inflation with lots of caution but
this could not have come at a more opportune time for India especially with
several reform issues hinged on the behaviour of headline inflation. The power
of zero must therefore be fully harnessed. Coming few months will be keenly
watched on whether we are able to make the most of it. </span></span></div>
</div>
N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-38374105895054494852014-11-25T23:19:00.000-08:002014-11-25T23:19:04.996-08:00Smooth start to a tough ride<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-75757544578258160892014-10-27T04:22:00.000-07:002015-02-03T00:34:51.236-08:00 रौशन भविश्य की ओर कदम<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-87093542601617872292014-10-22T01:36:00.000-07:002014-10-22T01:36:11.049-07:00This Dividend Will Be A Cracker <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-62513768560496265952014-10-01T01:33:00.000-07:002014-10-01T01:33:52.205-07:00पूरब से पश्चिम का यह मिलन<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-14445473182277381962014-09-28T22:51:00.000-07:002014-09-29T01:31:59.172-07:00Let's look East and link West<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-23618766557381609842014-09-20T01:47:00.000-07:002014-09-20T01:47:51.990-07:00अर्थ नीति और विदेश नीति साथ साथ <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-53387994249446759222014-09-11T02:04:00.000-07:002014-09-11T22:36:06.273-07:00India-Japan Ties Blossom at the Confluence of Modi-Abenomics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-82923191873287377872014-08-22T00:58:00.000-07:002014-08-22T00:58:40.580-07:00मेड इन इंडिया के मायने<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-9907523277137558902014-08-12T02:54:00.001-07:002014-08-12T02:54:39.593-07:00कोसी की धार, अच्छे रिश्तों के आसार<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-21482798336346734922014-08-05T02:55:00.003-07:002014-08-05T03:57:58.712-07:00There are no shortcuts to growth, poverty reduction<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-71479795444750237852014-07-30T22:34:00.000-07:002014-07-30T22:36:10.277-07:00ग़रीबी हटाने की लम्बी डगर<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-60403100595317933622014-07-14T02:15:00.001-07:002014-07-14T02:15:46.871-07:00Now for the PM's Midas touch<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-31804984292106168972014-07-11T03:15:00.001-07:002014-07-11T03:15:15.966-07:00भविष्य की ओर देखने वाला बजट<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-53678184869004989842014-07-07T01:27:00.000-07:002014-07-07T01:27:16.999-07:00बचे हूये वित्त वर्ष के लिए<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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N.K. Singhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07879489111921472232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2886127095503239436.post-73595018196489498932014-07-04T01:21:00.000-07:002014-07-04T01:21:30.182-07:00The 'impossible' is possible now<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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